Why outcomes-based structures fit biochar, and how we build them.
A conventional loan asks a young project to repay on a fixed schedule whether or not carbon revenue has arrived. An outcomes-based structure ties repayment to results that are measured and verified.
Investors fund construction and operations at the start, when the project needs the money most.
Outcome funders such as public agencies, corporate buyers, and foundations pay when independent verification confirms the result.
Each party takes the risk it is best placed to carry, and the structure reflects that in who is paid first.
We build forecasts as three cases and size each layer of the capital stack to a different level of confidence.
| Case | What it means | How it is used |
|---|---|---|
| P90 | The conservative case. Production is expected to meet or exceed it nine times in ten. | Sizes the senior layer, where repayment must be most dependable. |
| P50 | The expected case. | Sizes the middle layer and anchors the base financial model. |
| P10 | The upside case. | Sizes the junior layer, which carries the most risk and the most reward. |
This borrows from resource estimation and renewable energy project finance, where lenders already know how to read it.
Carbon removal is the first outcome we structure around, not the only one. The same approach extends to soil health, water quality, wildfire-fuel reduction, waste diversion, and farmer adoption of regenerative practices. Projects that pair biochar with fertilizer or other nutrient inputs can offer funders a yield benefit they can see alongside the verified removal.
An 11-slide explainer: who does what, how the money flows, and how P50 and P90 sizing works. PDF, about 110 KB.